SCOPE

Sources and drivers of organic aerosol pollution in Europe and response to global warming and net-zero policies

Started
October 1, 2025
Status
In Progress
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Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) is a major environmental threat to human health. Its largest component, organic aerosol (OA), originates from human activities, such as like traffic and residential heating, as well as natural sources and chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Its complex composition makes it difficult to predict OA concentrations, determine their sources, and assess its effects on human health.

In a multidisciplinary collaboration between atmospheric scientists, epidemiologists, and data scientists, the SCOPE project will develop detailed daily maps of OA concentrations and sources across Europe over several decades. Combined with mortality data, these maps will help quantify premature deaths linked to different OA sources. The project will also investigate how weather, human activity, and land use shape OA levels, and how these may change under future climate conditions and Net-Zero emission scenarios. The findings will support more effective environmental and public health policies.

People

Collaborators

SDSC Team:
Simon Dirmeier
Geoffrey Chinot
Ekaterina Krymova

PI | Partners:

Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Centre for Energy and Environment, PSI

  • Dr. Imad El Haddad
  • Dr. Kaspar Daellenbach
  • Prof. Andre S. H. Prevot

Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute

  • Dr Kees de Hoogh
  • Dr Danielle Vienneau

description

Motivation

‍Currently, there exist no approaches to estimate the causal effect of weather, temperature and other (climate) variables on OC concentrations, making informed decision on OA pollution mitigation difficult. The SCOPE project will develop and apply causal analysis methods to identify cause-and-effect relationships between environmental and geological factors and their effect on organic aerosol (OA) concentrations.

Proposed Approach / Solution

‍The SDSC will combine causal discovery techniques with double and orthogonal machine learning to determine which factors influence OA levels and estimate the strength of their effects.

Impact

‍We expect that our work will help inform decision-making for environmental and public health policies to reduce OA pollution from the identified sources (causes), resulting in improvements of general public health, climate research and guiding sustainable development.

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Gallery

Annexe

Additional resources

Bibliography

  • Prüss-Üstün, A., et al. (2016). Preventing disease through healthy environments: a global assessment of the burden of disease from environmental risks.
  • Landrigan, P. J., et al. (2018). The Lancet Commission on pollution and health.
  • Chen, G., et al. (2022). European aerosol phenomenology− 8: Harmonised source apportionment of organic aerosol using 22 Year-long ACSM/AMS datasets.
  • Burnett, R., et al. (2018). Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.
  • Chernozhukov, V., et al. (2018). Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters.

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